We asked 45,000 multifamily investors when they expect multifamily deals to recover. Here's what they told us.
There are so many stories out there about how the multifamily sector is facing a serious test. I've written plenty about my own outlook (as well as outlooks of some of the larger players) in the past, but it's been a while since I've gotten feedback from our extensive Multifamily Minute readership.
So, that's what last week was about.Survey ResultsI specifically asked last week when you felt that multifamily transaction activity would recover. Now, granted, you can use healthy transactions to be a sign of healthy assets, but this isn't always perfectly aligned.
So: Here's when our 45,000ish readers are expecting multifamily deals to get back to a more "normal" pace.Time period | Percent of respondents |
|---|---|
Q1 2024 | 2% |
Q2 2024 | 21% |
Q3 2024 | 51% |
Q4 2024 | 8% |
Early 2025 | 17% |
Even further out | 1% |
I found these results to be pretty heartening, truth be told. There's been a fair bit of talk about a mid-2024 recovery.
I normally take industry outlooks with a grain of salt, to be honest. But the fact remains that there's a huge amount of multifamily construction going on, and these new properties will mean higher vacancies, slower rent growth, and, yes, lower deal volume until the market finds its balance.That balance won't happen overnight, but looking at the third quarter next year is realistic, given how new construction starts have basically fallen off a cliff. And we may even see signs of recovery starting earlier (possibly in the second quarter), though it likely won't be a robust improvement.Subscribe to the Multifamily MinuteDoes my analysis make sense? Am I completely off base, based on your experiences? Shoot me a 'reply' to this week's Multifamily Minute, because I'd love to get your point of view. Oh, but to reply to the Minute, you'll have to be subscribed. Do that below:
Our Previous Survey
Last week, I walked you through our previous survey's results. The focus? Artificial intelligence and its impacts on the multifamily sector. Don't worry if you missed it: Check out what our subscribers said.